A shifting tide: The ANC’s decline and the rise of new political forces in South Africa

THE 2024 National and Provincial Elections in South Africa have delivered a seismic shift in the country’s political landscape. The once-dominant ANC has faced significant setbacks, losing its outright majority at both national and provincial levels, including in its stronghold of KwaZulu-Natal.

The newly formed MK Party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, has emerged as a formidable force, cutting deeply into the ANC’s voter base and dramatically altering the political dynamics in the province.

This election also saw the EFF, another breakaway from the ANC, being pushed to the fourth-largest party in South Africa by the MK Party.

The ANC, which for decades has been the bedrock of South African politics, finds itself in an unprecedented position. The party has lost its ability to govern alone in key provinces like Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and Northern Cape, regions that have been critical to its political dominance.

The Western Cape has long been under the control of the DA, further underscoring the ANC’s waning influence.

The rise of the MK Party is particularly noteworthy. Zuma has leveraged his popularity in KwaZulu-Natal to create a political movement that resonates with many who feel disenchanted with the current ANC leadership.

Zuma’s party has capitalised on a sense of nostalgia and dissatisfaction, promising a return to what they perceive as the core values of the ANC’s liberation struggle. This has significantly eroded the ANC’s support in a province that has historically been a bulwark for the party.

The EFF, which had positioned itself as the radical alternative to the ANC, has now been relegated to fourth place. This shift highlights a fragmentation in the voter base that once overwhelmingly supported the ANC.

The EFF’s militant rhetoric and policies have appealed to a segment of the population, but the emergence of the MK Party suggests that there is a substantial contingent of voters looking for a different kind of change, one that perhaps harks back to a more traditional form of leadership.

As the ANC scrambles to form coalitions to stay in power at the national level and in three key provinces, the question on everyone’s mind is whether this marks the beginning of the end for the party that once seemed unassailable.

The ANC’s Secretary General, Fikile Mbalula, emerging from a two-day hiatus, has asserted that the party is “down but not out”.

In his most humble self, Mbalula stated during a post-elections media briefing: “Over the next few days, the ANC will be having discussions within the organisation and with other parties and stakeholders on how best to establish national and provincial governments that reflect the will of the people, and that are able to take the country forward.”

He added: “We are hard pressed on every side, but not crushed; we are perplexed, but not in despair; persecuted, but not abandoned; struck down, but not destroyed. Down, but not out. Cooperation remains the foundation which we should build our future on. Therefore we do not lose heart.”

The future prospects for the ANC are uncertain. The party must now navigate the complexities of coalition politics, which can be fraught with instability and compromise. This is a far cry from the unilateral power it once wielded.

To regain its footing, the ANC will need to undertake significant introspection and renewal. This includes addressing corruption within its ranks, reconnecting with the grassroots, and presenting a coherent and inspiring vision for the future.

Moreover, the ANC’s ability to reinvent itself will depend largely on its willingness to embrace genuine reform and transparency.

The party needs to build a new generation of leaders who are untainted by the scandals and controversies that have plagued it in recent years. It must also find ways to address the socio-economic challenges that continue to affect millions of South Africans, delivering tangible improvements in areas such as education, healthcare, and employment.

In conclusion, the 2024 elections have signalled a dramatic shift in South Africa’s political landscape. The ANC’s dominance has been seriously challenged by the emergence of the MK Party and the repositioning of the EFF.  

As the ANC grapples with the implications of these changes, its future will hinge on its ability to adapt and reform. While the ANC is down, it is not yet out, but the road ahead will require significant effort and a reimagining of its role in South Africa’s democracy.